气候条件变异对吉林省玉米单产的影响分析

Effect of Climate Variability on Maize Yield in Jilin Province

基于1978～2009年吉林省东、中、西部共8个县(市)玉米单产和气候条件数据,运用面板回归模型研究该时期内气候条件变异对吉林省玉米单产的影响。结果表明,1978年以来,吉林省玉米单产波动性较强,产能不稳定。日平均气温、日照时数、日降水量、相对湿度和风速均对玉米气象产量有显著影响。从影响方向看,除风速外,其他因素均对吉林省样本地区玉米气象产量产生正向影响;从影响程度看,玉米生育期内的日降水量影响最大,其次是日均气温和日照时数,相对湿度和风速的影响相对较小。

Based on the maize yield and weather data of 8 counties distributed in eastern,central and western of Jilin province during 1978 to 2009,the effects of climate variability were researched concerning maize production in Jilin province by Panel Data model.The results showed that the maize yield of Jilin was highly volatile and unstable since 1978.The daily average temperature（℃）,sunshine hours（h/d）,daily precipitation（mm）,relative humidity（%） and wind speed（m/s） have significant effect on maize yield.In terms of impact direction,all the climate factors had positive effects excepted wind speed.As effected degree,descending order was daily precipitation,average daily temperature,sunshine hours,relative humidity and wind speed.