吉林省玉米生产自然灾害风险评估与气象灾害产量的影响因素研究

Disaster Risk Assessment of Maize Production and Influencing Factor Analysis on the Damage Yields

结合吉林省玉米生产情况,分析玉米生产中自然灾害风险大小与发生规律,采用信息扩散理论风险概率评估模型,测算玉米生产中主要灾害因子的发生概率,构建气象灾害产量影响因素分析模型,估计影响吉林省气象灾害产量的主要因素。结果表明,吉林省玉米生产自然灾害风险较大,水、旱灾害发生的概率较高,是导致玉米灾害产量形成的主要原因。

Based on the statistical data of maize production,a detailed research is firstly given on the magnitude and distribution rule of natural disaster risks in this paper,and then occurrence probability of disaster risks is analyzed by using the theory model of the fuzzy mathematics and information diffusion.At last,it analyzes influencing factor of maize meteorological yields and proposes the strategies of reduction the disaster damages.The results showed that the natural disaster risk of maize production is larger,the probability of flood and drought disasters is higher,these are the main reasons to cause the formation of maize yield disaster.