羊群行为下商业银行的信贷传导机制

Credit Transmission Mechanism of Commercial Banks under the Influence of Herd Behaviour

本文从行为金融学视角,通过引用商业银行利润函数,并选取我国房地产市场信贷数据,对基于"羊群行为"的商业银行信贷传导机制进行了实证分析,研究结果表明:垄断热门行业信贷资金预期收益率高是信贷资金向其集中的根源,并且信贷资金向其集中程度随着信贷资金预期收益率的提升而增强,信贷资金的增加又促使房地产行业有效需求及交易额度不断增长,这势必在一定程度上引发房地产价格上涨。这说明在信息共享型羊群行为机制作用下,商业银行过度向房地产行业发放贷款也是造成房地产行业泡沫的重要因素。

From the perspective of behavioral finance and with reference to profit function for commercial bank, the paper uses credit data of Chinese real estate market to empirically analyze the credit transmission mechanism of commercial banks. The resuits show that high expected rate of return of monopoly industry is the root of concentration of credit funds in the industry. The increase of credit funds will spur the continuous increase of effective demand and transaction volume in real estate industry, which will certainly result in the rise of real estate prices to some extent. Therefore, under the influence of herd behaviour based on information sharing, excessive loan to real estate industry is also an important factor resulting in bubbles in the industry.