金砖四国FDI与经济增长关系的实证分析被引量：17

An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in BRICs

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摘要外国直接投资(FDI)是发展中国家谋求经济起飞的重要资源,外国直接投资通过资本形成和技术进步促进东道国经济增长,而东道国经济增长又进一步带动外国直接投资的流入。本文从数量分析的角度,利用协整理论考察了巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国四国的FDI与经济增长的关系,并建立误差修正模型刻画它们的动态均衡关系。实证分析表明:长期内,巴西、印度和俄罗斯的FDI与经济增长之间存在显著的Granger因果关系,而中国的FDI与经济增长之间则不存在稳定的Granger因果关系;短期内,巴西和俄罗斯两国的FDI与经济增长具有显著的互补性,但中国的经济增长只能单方面吸引FDI的流入,印度的FDI也只能单方面对经济增长起推动作用。 Foreign direct investment has been viewed as an important resource for developing countries to pursue their economic take-off.Foreign direct investment can promote the transfer of technological and business know-how to poorer countries.These transfers may have substantial spillover effects for the entire economy and may boost the economic growth.This paper uses co-integration theory and error correction model to reassess the relationship between economic growth and FDI involving BRIC countries.The empirical analysis finds meaningful Granger causality relationships between FDI and the growth of Brazil,Russian and India in the long term,but no long-term Granger causality relationship exists in China.In the short term,we also find that FDI does not exert a robust,positive influence on growth except Russian,while economic growth does attract inward FDI except India.

作者何菊香汪寿阳

机构地区北京邮电大学经济管理学院中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院

出处《管理评论》 CSSCI 北大核心 2011年第9期3-11,共9页 Management Review

基金中国科学院预测科学研究中心开放课题(CEFS-10-2-03)

关键词金砖四国外国直接投资经济增长协整分析 GRANGER因果关系 BRICs foreign direct investment economic growth co-integration analysis Granger causality relationship

分类号 F224 [经济管理—国民经济] F114.46 [经济管理—国际贸易]

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