一般均衡视角的旅游产业福利效应研究——基于中国四个世界双遗产旅游地的面板数据分析

A Research on Welfare Effects of Tourism Industry from General Equilibrium Perspective:A Panel Data Analysis Based on Four Natural and Cultural Heritage Destinations in China

本文利用一般均衡理论,以图解分析法分析旅游产业快速发展对旅游目的地所产生的福利效应。研究显示,旅游产业快速发展对旅游目的地GDP增长率有显著的积极影响,推动了社会福利水平的提升,但对旅游目的地CPI、居民实际收入、工农业等相关产业发展、收入分配、社会治安、生态环境等有显著的消极影响,又在一定程度上降低了当地居民的社会福利,其最终影响取决于积极影响与消积影响的"双向均衡"。同时,以中国四个世界自然与文化双遗产旅游区为实证研究对象验证了这种"双向均衡"社会福利效应的存在性。研究为我国不同旅游目的地旅游产业的产业定位与可持续发展的政策制定提供了一定的借鉴。

This paper applies the general equilibrium theory and diagrammatizing analysis method to analyze the welfare effects of tourism industry development on destinations.The result shows that：fast development of tourism industry has notable positive effects on the growth rate of GDP,and enhances welfare level of the destinations.However,it brings notable negative effects on their CPI,residents＇ actual income,agricultural and industrial development,revenue distribution,social public security and the ecological environment as well.Therefore it reduces welfare level of the destinations to some degree and the final result of it is reflected by the two-fold equilibrium.Based on the panel data of four Natural and Cultural Heritages in China,the paper also makes a test of the possibility of the ＂two fold equilibrium＂.The author believes that the findings provide certain reference to tourism industry orientation and persistent harmonious development of different tourism destinations in China.