气候变化风险研究的初步探讨

Primary Study on the Theories and Methods of Research on Climate Change Risk

讨论了气候变化风险的基本内涵,指出敏感性、暴露程度及可能性是气候变化风险的三个基本组成要素。气候变化风险具有不确定性、未来事件、损害性以及相对性等特征。风险评估与风险管理是气候变化风险研究的两个主要环节,以风险评估为手段,以风险管理为最终目标,是应对气候变化行动的基本思路。提出了气候变化风险研究的初步框架和主要方法。并给出未来气候变化下中国洪涝灾害风险研究的实际案例。最后指出,气候变化风险研究要从风险集合预测、定量风险损失评估、风险区划与制图以及风险管理等多个方面展开。

This paper discusses the theories and methods of climate change risk study for carrying out basis for the research expansion in China.Climate change risks consist of three basic components including sensitivity,exposure and possibility.Uncertainty,future events,damaging and relativity are the major features of climate change risk.Climate change risk research includes two key steps including risk assessment and risk management,the former is the process,and the latter is the ultimate goal which is the basis for actions to address climate change.We also gave out the main framework and methods for climate change risk research.A case study of China＇s floods risk was taken to give an example of climate change risk study.Finally,we pointed out some main aspects of climate change risk research including ensemble-based probabilistic projection,quantitative risk assessment,risk zoning and mapping,risk management and so on.