石油价格波动对我国经济影响的系统动力学分析

System dynamic research of main economy indexes of China caused by fluctuation of oil price

从消费、收入、投资、贸易、物价等5个方面建立了易受油价波动影响的主要经济指标体系.在此基础上引入系统动力学的方法,分析了石油价格波动对我国经济的影响.实证结果表明:①消费领域受到石油价格波动的影响幅度相对较大,当油价上涨时,消费领域的变化幅度往往要强于石油价格的变化幅度;②收入、贸易、投资领域受石油价格波动的影响较为接近,高油价导致我国出口下降,从而削弱我国出口产品的国际竞争力;③国际油价不断大幅上升会削弱我国的经济增长能力,降低经济增长水平,从而引发通货膨胀.

By analyzing the data from Chinese statistical yearbook,index system of the main economy domains,which are easy to be affected by the fluctuating of oil price,is constructed.The domains include consumption,income,investment,trade and commodity price.And System Dynamics are introduced to analyze the effect of international oil price on the national economy.Results are as follows.Firstly,the fluctuation range of consumption is the biggest one.The higher of the oil price is,the higher of the cost is,the higher of the sale prices of the products are.Secondly,the fluctuation range and tendency of the income,trade,and investment are similar.External demands are a primary power for pulling the economic development of China.The growing of oil price decelerates the economic growth of the whole world.Therefore,the advantages of China as the world＇s workshop gradually lose.Lastly,the rising of oil price will certainly result in the upswing of commodity price.The force of highly growing up of oil price will weaken economic growth ability,reduce the economic growth level,induce inflation,and at last increase the commodity price and affect the normal life of state residents.