政府适度负债规模的研究——从欧洲主权债务危机到中国地方政府负债风险谈起

Research on Moderate Size of Government Debt——Talking from European Sovereign Debt Crisis to Chinese Local Government Debt Risk

在现代经济环境下政府倘若仅依靠自身财力,既无外债又无内债地发展经济已显不足;但凡经济发展较快的国家无不举债,依靠举债借助外力不仅能促进且能加快经济发展。然而近年西欧爆发主权债务危机,我国中央地方两级负债暗藏隐性风险,地方政府融资平台风险甚是暴露,也从另一个角度警示政府负债是一把双刃剑。而根据自身实力与未来发展预期适度负债才是最佳选择,负债不足与过度负债都是不可取的。目前,实行规模控制是世界各国管理地方政府债务较为普遍的手段,保持地方政府适度负债规模既要约束作为借款方的地方政府行为进行需求控制,又要规范银行及非银行金融机构发放政府贷款的行为进行供给控制。同时还要与风险预警相结合,对债务规模不足或过度及时施行警示,化解政府负债结构性风险引发危机的潜在根源:以科学发展观建立科学的政府绩效考核制度;依据风险特点规范负债管理法律规章制度;开辟多渠道优化政府负债存量减轻财政包袱;完善地方政府负债规模与风险监测预警机制。

It is inadequate for the government to promote the economic development if they just depend on their own financial resources,without external debts or internal debts in the modern economic environment.No country with a rapid economic development does not burden the debt,since relying on debt cannot only promote but accelerate the economic development.However,in recent years the Western European countries have had the outbreak of sovereign debt crises,Chinese central and local governments have hidden debt risks,and local governments＇ financing platform expose more and more risks,which warns that the government debt is a double-edged sword from other perspective.Therefore,the best choice is moderate debt in accordance with its own power and the expectation of future development,both inadequate debt and over-debtedness are not desirable.On the basis of the research of the standard of moderate government debt,the paper provides the standard to control the critical point of moderate debt for government.At the same time,it also gives warning and countermeasures corresponding to its own debt level and standard for all levels of government,so as to maintain stable economic growth.