基于多元线性回归的广西粮食产量预测

Forecast for the grain yield of Guangxi based on the multiple linear regression model

【目的】利用多元线性回归分析方法构建广西粮食产量预测模型,以期为相关研究提供参考。【方法】对影响粮食产量的各种因素进行分析,应用多元线性回归分析法建立广西粮食产量的预测模型。【结果】对粮食产量贡献最为明显的因子是种植面积,其次是单位面积产量,降水量对粮食产量影响最小。粮食产量与种植面积、粮食单产、降水量的回归方程为:y=-517.759+0.158x1+0.382x2-0.001x3。应用多元线性回归模型预测2012年广西粮食产量为1464.381万t。【建议】在保证土地面积的前提下,加快农业科技创新、加强农田水利建设和完善促进粮食生产的相关政策,以保证广西粮食生产的稳定发展。

【Objective】The present study was carried out to forecast the grain yield of Guangxi by using multiple linear regression model in order to provide references for related researches. 【Method】The factors affecting the grain yield in Guangxi were analyzed. Based on the analysis, multiple linear regression model was used to forecast the grain yield of Guangxi. 【Result】The factor of grain planting area had the biggest impact on the grain yield of Guagnxi, followed by yield per unit area and the precipitation. The multiple linear regression equation of grain yield associated with planting area, yield per unit area and precipitation was as follow： y=-517.759＋0.158x1＋0.382x2-0.01x3. The grain yield of Guangxi in 2012 was predicted as 14643810 tons based on the multiple linear regression equation. 【Conclusion】The grain planting area should not be decreased in order to sustain the yield and production of grains in Guangxi. Under this premise, acceleration in innovation of agricultural science and technology, development of irrigation and conservation projects and implementation of related policies have been suggested.