基于经济增长与能源消费关系的中国能源消费预测

Energy Consumption Forecast in China based on the Relationship between Economy Growth and Energy Consumption

通过对1978—2008年能源消费和GDP的实证关系分析,发现存在较稳定的由GDP到能源消费的单向因果关系和协整关系,构造出由GDP到能源消费的二阶误差修正模型,并用该模型完成对能源消费总量的预测。

This paper focuses on the relationship between economy growth and energy consumption based on the data of China from 1978 to 2008,and finds that GDP is the Granger Cause of the energy consumption and economy growth and the energy consumption expressed the cointegrated condition.The cointegration analysis and Granger Causality Test have been used.The econometric model,from GDP to energy consumption,has been developed by using second-order error correction model.The extent of energy consumption in the next 30 years has been given by using the above model.