江苏省能源碳排放现状及县域聚类分析

The Status and County Cluster Analysis on Jiangsu's Energy Carbon Emission

利用1998～2008年江苏省能源消费数据,初步分析了江苏省能源碳排放的现状。以碳排放量、人均碳排放量和碳排放强度为指标,采用K-均值聚类分析方法对2002年、2008年江苏省县域的"排放—效率"类型进行了基本划分,并分析了各聚类碳排放格局特征。结果显示:GDP标准下的发达地区大多属于"高排放"类型,其中部分县市甚至属于"高排放—低效率"类型;以南京市区和徐州市区为代表的"高排放—低效率"地区,占全省碳排放量的一半,是江苏省节能减排的重点区域;不同聚类类型间呈现明显的空间自相关性,相同类型在空间上集中分布;局部格局的不稳定性,使县域在不同聚类类型间的跃迁行为时有发生。

Using Jiangsu province’s energy consumption data from 1998 to 2008,we get a preliminary analysis of the status of energy carbon emission.Then,taking the carbon emission,per capita carbon emission and carbon intensity as indexs,a basic division type of＂emission and efficiency＂can be given by K-means cluster analysis method on the 2002 and 2008 in county of Jiangsu Province,and the clustering pattern of carbon emission characteristics is analyzed.The results show that：most of developed cities in GDP criterion belong to the high-emission type,many of which even belong to the class of high-emission and low-efficiency;The Nanjing urban area,Xuzhou urban area as the representative of＂high emission and low efficiency＂area in Jiangsu Province,these areas are the key point of energy saving;There is a strong trend of spatial natural correlation between different cluster types,and the similar areas cluster in space;Local pattern of instability make the county transitions behavior between types in the cluster acts occur frequently