基于系统动力学的应急资源动员政策优化研究

The Study on Emergency Resource Policy's Experimentation and Optimization Based on System Dynamics

以系统动力学建模为基础,通过政策试验和优化探索一种资源配置的方法,使得在不同危机状态下采取不同的动员手段和动员准备,满足危机状态下对应急资源的需求。应急资源政策试验和优化的过程包括:构建动员潜力释放链系统动力学模型;确定动员政策规则和政策参数;在仿真平台上进行试验,确定目标值。研究表明:一个经济体系能否保证在不同的危机状态下呈现动员资源超常规供给能力而满足动员需求,取决于应急资源动员准备和应急资源动员手段等应急资源动员政策作用下储备和可转换资源能否顺畅地释放,各种生产要素能否呈现超常规的供给能力。加强应急资源动员准备,促进应急资源动员手段分级别地有效实施,有利于增强应急资源动员潜力,促进应急资源动员潜力释放,保证有效地应对各种危机事态,保证在不同危机状态下各种动员资源按照储备、可转化资源及超常规生产的模式使动员资源在经济体系中呈现超常规供给能力,满足动员需求且尽量不因过度动员而造成的浪费。

This paper has studied a method of resource allocation based on system dynamics so that different mobilization means and mobilization preparations can be adopted to satisfy emergency resource demand in different critical states.The process of emergency resource policy＇s experimentation and optimization includes： SD model of the release chain of the mobilization potential system is built;mobilization policy rules and parameters are defined;mobilization experiment is carried out and targeted values are determined in the simulation platform.The research shows that whether an economy system can ensure that various states of crisis to emergency resources under the present supply of super-normal ability to meet the mobilization needs depends on whether the reserves and the convertible resource can be released smoothly under the emergency resource mobilization policy,such as emergency resource mobilization preparation and mobilization means of national economy,and whether all kinds of factors of production can show extraordinary ability to supply.Emergency resource preparations and means can strengthen emergency resource mobilization potential,promote releasing emergency resource mobilization potential,deal with all kind of emergency states,and satisfy all kind of emergency resources demand and avoid over-mobilization.