国防技术成果军转民多元线性回归模型研究

Research on the Multiple Linear Regression Model of Transferring Defense Technology Achievements to Civil Use

国防科技工业技术成果的军转民对国民经济的发展具有巨大的推动作用。结合当前我国国防科技工业的现状,通过调查问卷的方法对影响国防技术成果军转民的因素进行了分析,对23个影响因子采用因子分析方法提取了6个公共因子;采用多元线性回归的方法分析6个公共因子对技术转移效果的影响程度。结果表明,影响程度由大到小为:技术配套支持因子、技术转移意识因子、市场因子、技术因子、科研资源分布因子、政策机制因子,说明当前外部环境对技术转移效果的影响较小,对于技术成果本身民口企业更注重技术的配套支持和市场前景,同时人的技术转移意识相当重要。认为应完善顶层设计、不断创新技术军转民运行机制、建立和完善军民技术转移信息交流平台、加强军民通用标准体系建设和产学研合作交流、加快军工技术转移的解密工作和技术转移人才队伍培养,创新保密制度、实施国家知识产权战略、增强市场观念和竞争意识。

Transferring technology achievements of defense industry to civil use plays a huge driving role in the development of the national economy.Combined with the current Chinese defense industry situation,the paper analyzed the factors which influence defense technology achievements transfer to civil use by the form of questionnaire survey.Using the factor analysis method,23 impact factors are extracted to 6 common factors,and then using the regression analysis method the paper analyzes the influence of the 6 common factors on the technology transfer effect.The results show the influence by the descending order is： technology necessary support factor,consciousness of technology transfer factor,market factor,technical factor,distribution of research resource factor,policy mechanism factor,the current external environment have less impact on technology transfer effect,for technology achievements private enterprises pay more attention to technology necessary support and the market prospect,meanwhile consciousness of technology transfer is quite important.Finally,combined with conclusions from analysis,the paper proposes a series of suggestions which promote the defense industry technologies transfer to civil use.