金融开放背景下利率、汇率的产出效应与价格效应研究——基于SVAR模型的实证分析

Output Effect and Price Effect of Interest Rates and Exchange Rate in Open Financial System:Empirical Analysis Based on SVAR Model

随着我国利率市场化改革和汇率体制改革的深入,金融市场的开放程度也越来越高。在金融市场开放的背景下,利率、汇率水平的变化对经济产出和价格有着复杂的影响。运用SVAR模型对我国2006年1月至2011年4月的数据进行实证分析,结果表明,单纯依靠提升利率不仅无法降低通货膨胀水平,反而会导致通货膨胀率更快增长;人民币升值虽然有助于降低通胀,但可能在很长时间内影响经济增长。

With the reform of interest rates and exchange rate system,Chinese financial market is more open and plays a complex role in the output effect and price effect of interest rates and exchange rate.According to the empirical analysis,which based on SVAR model and the data from January 2006 to April 2011,it will lead to higher inflation by raising interest rates.Although RMB appreciation is helpful to reduce inflation,economic output has to suffer the recession in a very long time.