我国货币中性的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Neutrality of Money in China

国际金融危机爆发以来,降低利率、增加流通中货币成了各国政府解决金融危机的共同做法,货币对于经济的积极作用再次引起人们的关注。过于宽松的货币政策能持续多久,会不会造成严重的通货膨胀,进而破坏经济的健康发展,也同样引起人们的关注。本文对我国1978-2009年的流通中货币、利率、物价指数对GDP的影响进行了实证研究,结果表明流通中货币不是实际GDP增长的格兰杰原因,货币是中性的;GDP的实际增长率是实际利率的格兰杰原因,名义利率和GDP没有因果关系;GDP和物价指数没有格兰杰因果关系,通货膨胀不能促进经济的增长。

Since the outbreak of ＂international financial crisis＂,lowering interest rate to increase the money supply has been a common way of the suffering countries to deal with the financial crisis,and the positive function of money to economy has attracted people′s attention.How long can the loose monetary policy last,will it cause serious inflation and destroy the healthy development of economy？ All these have also been concerned questions to people.This paper analyzed the causality between GDP and currencies in flow,interest rate,inflation rate and gross domestic product in China from 1978 to 2008,the empirical analysis demonstrated that currency in flow was not the Granger cause of real GDP,the currency in flow was neutral;The growth rate of real GDP was the Granger cause of real interest rate,nominal interest rate and GDP had no Granger causality;GDP and price index had no Granger causality,inflation can′t promote the growth of economy.