人民币汇率与商品出口结构--基于中国省际数据的经验研究

The RMB Exchange Rate and Export Structure: An Empirical Research Based on Chinese Provincial-level Data

汇率对商品出口结构的影响一直是学术界关注的热点问题之一。本文构建了汇率通过影响相对成本价格从而改变贸易数量结构和贸易金额结构的理论模型,分析表明:人民币升值会使得较多使用国外投入成本的产品更具有相对价格优势而增加其在数量结构上的比重。进一步地,本文选取全国30个省份21类HS分类商品出口数据为分析样本,采用面板协整方法实证检验了人民币汇率变动对我国商品出口结构的影响,结果表明:人民币升值将增加传统优势行业产品出口占总额的比重,但高科技行业的这一比例将会降低。

： The effect of RMB exchange rate on export structure has always been a hot issue. This paper develops a theoretical model to analyze the effect of exchange rate on the quantitative structure and volume structure of exports through the change of relative costs. Theoretical results show that RMB appreciation would enable the commodities with more foreign input to have relative price advantage and increase its proportion in the quantitative structure. Furthermore, we select 30 provincial-level export data in China in the classification of 21 HS types between the year 2000 and 2008, and use panel co-integration method to analyze the influence of RMB exchange rate on the export structure. The empirical results indicate that RMB appreciation increases traditional advantageous industries＇ proportion of total export volume, but decreases that of the high-tech industry.