城乡居民消费差异与收入不平等研究——来自中国1978～2007年的经验证据

The Difference For the U-R Consumption and the Inequality of Income: Evidence from 1978 to 2007 in China

长期以来,消费理论研究是宏观经济增长研究的重点内容,发展经济学的重要研究领域,微观经济学消费行为研究的核心内容。本文分析延续从消费差异论到消费决定论,最后回归消费增长论的逻辑主线。借助1978～2007年的城乡居民消费及相关经济数据,依据消费的持久收入假设,估计了城乡居民消费函数,发现两者差异主要来自持久收入和自发性消费的影响。基于VAR模型的参数估计结果表明:城乡消费不仅在消费水平和增长率决定因素方面存在显著差异,并且在自身冲击和收入冲击的效应方面亦存在显著差异;在影响农村居民消费增加的众多因素中,收入增加成为关键因素。城乡收入不平等以及农村内部的不平等都使得刺激农村消费需求面临困境,而回归农村经济发展以及收入分配的增量改革和存量调整都是解决困境的重要途径。

Consumption theory has always been the main content of macro-economics, the key research area of development economics, and the core content of microeconomics consumer behavior research. This paper begins from the logical line from consumption differences to consumer decision theory, finally returning to consumption growth theory. Using the time series data from 1978 to 2007 for urban and rural residents and the related economic conditions, based on the permanent income hypothesis of consumption, this paper estimates the urban and rural residents＇ consumption function, finding that their difference is mainly from permanent income and spontaneous consumption effect. The VAR model parameter estimation results show that there are remarkable difference between urban and rural consumption not only in the level of consumption and the growth rate of aspect, but also significant difference in the city and the rural residents＇ consumption. Of all the factors that affect rural resident consumption, income change is the key factor. The ease of urban-rural income inequality has to rely on rural economic development and the increment reform and stock adjustment of income distribution system.