基于利用回归分析法预报上下游相关洪峰水位

Using Regression Analysis Method to Forecast Correlation Flood Peak Water Levels on Upstream and Downstream

根据实际工作需要,为克服采用传统手段利用上下游洪峰水位相关图法来进行洪水预报所带来的不精确性和任意性,笔者利用数学函数方程和回归分析计算软件,使用excel的图形功能,先绘制样本数据散点图,然后在图上添加趋势线,确定了回归方程类型。根据回归方程类型进行了方程系数率定分析,最终推求出预报黑龙江乌云站洪峰水位和洪峰传播时间的数学回归方程,经实例拟合验证,方程计算结果通过检验,基本满足实际应用要求。

In order to overcome the non-accuracy and arbitrariness aroused from the flood forecast conducted by adopting traditional ways and using the correlation figure method of upstream and downstream flood peak water levels,the author uses mathematic functional equations,regression analysis calculation software and the figure function of Excel to draw the scattering diagram of example data early and then adds trend lines to the diagram,finally,defines the type of regression equation in accordance with the requirements of actual work.The equation calibration factor is analyzed based on the type of the regression equation,the mathematic regression equation of the flood peak water level and transmission time is ascertained for Heilongjiang Wuyun Station in the end.The calculated result of equation is according generally with the requirements of test and actual application by comparing and verifying to the actual example.