丹江口水库汛期径流演变特征及趋势预测

Danjiangkou Reservoir Runoff Characteristics and Trends of the Wavelet Analysis

根据丹江口水库运行调度的实践需求,采用Morlet小波函数对丹江口水库汛期的径流时间序列进行多时间尺度分析。研究表明:丹江口水库夏汛入库径流存在9年、23年、40年的主要周期;秋汛入库径流存在10年、24年、37年的主要周期;10月上旬的汛期末蓄水关键期入库径流存在9年、25年、41年的主要周期,并且在未来5年左右汛期末蓄水关键期的入库径流将处于偏丰期,夏汛和秋汛的入库径流将偏枯。本文研究成果可供丹江口水库防洪调度参考。

According to the practical needs of the operation scheduling of the Danjiangkou Reservoir,the morlet wavelet analysis is used to analyze the flood runoff time series of multiple time scales on the Danjiangkou Reservoir.Early October is the critical period at the end of flood.The critical period has a significant effect on the promotion of the reservoir.The morlet wavelet analysis shows that flood runoff in the summer of the Danjiangkou Reservior has three main periods of 9 years,23 years,40 years,flood runoff in the autumn of the Danjiangkou Reservior has three main periods of 10 years,24 years,37 years,and critical period Runoff of the Danjiangkou reservior has three main periods of 9 years,25 years,and 41 years.And in the next 5 years the end of the critical period of the runoff water will be abundant,in the side of the summer flood and autumn flood will be in the dry period.The results serve as a reference for the flood control of the Danjiangkou Reservoir.