城乡不同收入群体通胀差距对收入、消费的影响——基于中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)的实证分析

A Study on Inflation Gap in Urban and Rural Households with Different Income Levels in China——Based on China's Quarterly Macroeconomic Model(CQMM)

文章基于中国季度宏观经济模型,对我国城乡不同收入群体所面临的收入差距、通胀差距及其对总需求的影响进行了实证分析。通过构建消费行为方程,分析了总量CPI上涨对不同收入群体CPI、收入及消费支出的影响。研究结果表明,CPI的上涨对农村居民的冲击大于城镇居民,对低收入群体的冲击大于高收入群体。城乡及城乡不同收入群体面临的通胀差异会扩大不同收入群体的实际收入差距,削弱我国居民对通胀的耐受力。同时,抑制全社会居民消费需求扩张,会使最终消费对经济增长的贡献率持续下滑。因此,抑制通胀并有效降低通胀的社会成本,不仅要控制通胀的总量水平,而且要缩小通胀在不同收入群体之间的差距。即旨在控制总量通货膨胀的政策要兼顾缩小城乡居民的通胀差距。在制定宏观调控政策时,要在控制通胀与追求增长之间作出权衡,要坚决将增长速度控制在9%。为有效抑制通胀差距所产生的社会成本,必须充分重视通货膨胀对不同收入阶层尤其是农村低收入阶层收入的影响,采取有力措施保障低收入阶层的收入增长;要进一步提高最低工资标准和制造业劳工工资水平,保障城乡低收入阶层收入和消费水平,增强中低收入阶层抵御通胀侵蚀收入的能力。

The authors make an positive analysis on the income inequality,inflation gap and the impact of inflation on total demand in Urban and Rural Households with different income levels in China with China＇s Quarterly Macroeconomic Model（CQMM）.By building the consumption behavior equation,the authors also analyze the impact of rising CPI on the CPI,income and consumption expenditure of people with different income.It shows that,the impact of rising CPI on rural residents is greater than that on urban residents;and the impact of that on people with lower income is greater than that on people with higher income.The different inflation gap in urban and rural households with different income levels will help widen the real income gap of them,and weaken residents＇ tolerance of inflation in China.At the same time,restraining the expanding of consumption demand of all the residents will decrease the contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth.So,to control inflation and effectively decrease the social cost of inflation,we should not only control the overall level of inflation,but also narrow the inflation gap of people with different level of income.While formulating microeconomic policy,we should trade off controlling inflation and economic growth,and firmly control the rate of economic growth within 9%.To decrease the social cost of controlling inflation gap,first,we should pay more attention to the impact of inflation on people with different level of income,especially rural residents with lower income,adopt countermeasure of guaranteeing the income growth of people with lower income;second,we should further increase the level of minimum wage,increase the level of income of the industry of manufacturing,and guarantee the level of income and consumption of urban and rural households with lower income.