日本政治的未来发展趋势——从各政治主体相互关系的视角

Future Directions of Japanese Politics

目前,在日本政治中,选民与政党的关系因利益集团的衰退而尚未固定下来,政府与社会的关系更是由于行政改革处在较大的变化之中,决策过程中的议员与官僚的关系甚至有些紧张,世界政治经济格局尚未成型下的外交方向不确定选择也影响到国内政治的变化。因此,持续的政界分化组合引起的政权更替使日本政治乃至政局在一段时间内难以稳定下来。未来的日本政治体制将仍以一个较大的政党为中心组建政权,选民通过政策取向决定自己手中的选票,政党主导决策过程的趋势加强,市民组织型社会也有所发展,但日本在国际舞台上的影响力将逐渐减弱。

In Japanese politics,due to the decline of the interest groups,the relationship between voters and political parties has not yet stabilized.Because of the administrative reform,the relationship between the government and society is still changing.The relationship between the Diet members and the bureaucrats in the policy-making process is tinged with tension.Furthermore,uncertainty about the world's political and economic situation influences the changes in domestic politics.Therefore,changes in government,caused by the continuous political division and reconciliation,makes it difficult for the stabilization of Japanese politics.The future of the Japanese political system will still be characterized by a dominant party and a regime it constructs,with voters' policy-orientation determining their votes.The tendency for political parties to dominate the policy-making process will be stronger,and an organized civil society will develop as well.Meanwhile,Japan's influence on the international stage will be gradually weakened.