基于GIS的城市犯罪行为空间分布特征及预警分析

GIS-based Spatial Pattern of the Crimes in Cities and the Early Warning Mechanism

本文利用中原某县城区土地利用现状图、道路图、社区人口统计资料,以及10年的城区犯罪案例数据等,对该县城区不同犯罪类型和不同年份的犯罪数据进行了空间分析。对该县城区犯罪及其影响因素的空间格局研究表件明在:城①区该的县空城间区分的布核看心,区犯案罪件密数度量空最间多分,布其具次明为显东的关分和区西特关征较,多其,中而水边口缘路区、案十件字数街量和相袁对山较市少场;是②犯就罪所密有度犯最罪高案的区域;东关、西关以及城北新区是犯罪密度较高的区域;城市边缘区的犯罪密度最低。研究表明城市犯罪与城市建成区的发展有关系;城市犯罪案件数与城市出行人数存在较强的线性关系。通过建立城市犯罪空间分布模型,可以模拟与预测城市犯罪未来空间分布,从而使公安部门及时准确地作出防范措施。

This paper attempts to use the land use map, road map, community demographic data, and the 10 years data about urban crimes in a county-level city, to conduct a spatial analysis of the county town＇ s crimes of different types in different years. The research on the urban crime and the spatial pattem of its influencing factors shows that （1） the number of cases in the core area of the county town is the largest, followed by the east and west areas, while fringe areas have a relatively small number of cases; （2） the spatial distribution of crime density have clear regional characteristics, of which the Shuikou Road, Cross Street and Yuanshan market have the highest density of crime; the east and west areas as well as the new city in the north area are the high density areas of crime; while, the fringe of the city is the lowest density area of crime. The study has shown that urban crime has relations with the development of urban built-up area, and there is a strong linear relationship between urban crime and urban travel. Based on the establishment of the spatial distribution model of urban crime, we can simulate and predict the future spatial distribution of urban crimes, so that police departments can take accurate and timely preventive measures.