扩大内需与促进出口关系的实证分析——基于国内消费视角

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Domestic Demand Expansion and Export Promotion Based on the Perspective of Domestic Consumption

文章从国内消费视角,分析了扩大内需与促进出口的相互影响和传导路径,并基于1981～2008年中美两国的相关数据,运用协整理论进行检验。结果表明,长期中,内需与出口具有相互影响、相互促进的作用。除二者间相互的直接作用外,在促进内需增长的同时,出口会受到内需增长溢出效应的作用而增长,而刺激出口增长的同时,国内需求会受到外需反馈效应的作用而扩大。

From the perspective of domestic consumption, the interaction and conduction mechanism between domestic demand expansion and export promotion is analyzed and empirically tested by cointegration theory based on the relevant data of China and America from 1981 to 2008. The results indicate that the domestic demands and exports have not only mutual direct positive relationships in a long-term, but also spillover effects and feedback effects.