基于F-AHP的产业转移后可持续发展评价模型构建与实证研究

EVALUATION MODEL BUILD AND EMPIRICAL STUDY ON INDUSREIAL TRANSFER SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT BY F-AHP METHOD

本着系统思想,运用F-AHP法,依据现有相关数据和多位专家意见,从产业自身发展、产业与区域经济发展、产业与区域社会发展、产业与区域资源环境发展4个模块30个指标构建产业转移后可持续发展评价指标体系,建立包含指标间模糊关系矩阵和面向参评产业的模糊评价矩阵的评价模型。通过模型评价了2006～2009年江苏苏北各市转移产业的可持续发展水平和能力。模型结果表明:苏北五市近年来承接的产业已获得较好的生存能力和可持续发展能力,但从可持续发展度的分值来看,苏北各市转移产业的可持续发展水平还不高;相比于传统产业,各市目前转移产业的可持续发展水平普遍较高,但苏北五市承接的产业有较大的同构性。因此,苏北各市下一阶段应优先发展比较优势产业,错位承接转移产业并考虑其可持续发展能力的培育。

With Systems thinking, the present paper applied F-AHP Method to establish sustainable development evaluation indicators system about on four aspects, which including development of industrial transfer itself,industry and regional economy, industry and regional society, industry and resources and environ- ment. Then the article built evaluation model that consisted of fuzzy relation matrix among indicators and fuzzy evaluation matrix facing evaluated industries. After that, level and ability of sustainable development in industrial transfer were evaluated by the model in Northern Jiangsu cities from 2006 to 2009. Results show that industries undertaked by each city in development zone of Northern Jiangsu have obtained certain self-survival and self-development ability, but the degree scores show low sustainable development level. Compared to traditional industries,eren the level of transfer industry is generally higher,but there is a greater isomorphism of undertaking industries among cities. So each city in Northern Jiangsu should develope advantageous industries at precedent and sustainable development ability of transfer industries should be considered at next stage.