江苏省13城市1996～2008年碳排放时空变异分析

TEMPORAL-SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF CARBON EMISSIONS IN 13 CITIES OF JIANGSU PROVINCE FROM 1996 TO 2008

运用秩相关系数、变差系数、曲线拟合等方法,以市域为基本单元,以人均碳排放量、碳排放强度、脱钩指数等为指标,对江苏省1996～2008年的碳排放时空变异特征进行分析,研究得出:(1)近13a来,江苏省碳排放量不断增加,年均增长率高达13%,2008年已达20 000万t;经济较发达城市人均碳排放量较大,但碳排放强度相对不大;经济落后城市人均碳排放量小,但碳排放强度增加较快。(2)江苏省13城市人均碳排放、碳排放强度差异在不断缩小。(3)从人均碳排放看,江苏省及各市人均碳排放都随人均GDP呈线性增加关系,而南京、苏州、扬州、徐州作为各个区域发展较好的中心城市,人均碳排放随人均GDP增加最快。(4)从碳排放强度看,江苏省碳排放强度与人均GDP呈倒U型曲线关系,其拐点在人均GDP 2.5万元左右;但是各个城市碳排放强度与人均GDP呈波浪型曲线关系。(5)从脱钩指数看,脱钩水平受经济政策、产业结构、清洁技术水平的影响较大。

Coefficient of rank correlation, coefficient of variation and curve fit analysis were applied to analyzing the temporal-spatial variability of carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province. Taking city as a spatial unit and per capita carbon emissions, carbon emission intensity and decoupling index as measuring indexes for the level of regional carbon emissions from 1996 to 2008, it was found that, first, carbon emissions were found to increase annually by 13% over the entire Jiangsu Province during the latest 13 years, with emit- ting carbon of 196.4 million tons in 2008. Per capita carbon emissions in well-developed cities are larger with relatively lower carbon intensity; economically backward cities have a smaller amount of per capita carbon emissions, but carbon emission intensity increased rapidly. Second, the differences of per capita carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity among 13 cities are gradually narrowed. Third, per capita carbon emissions increased linearly with the GDP per capita in both Jiangsu Province and the municipali- ties, and Nanjing, Suzhou, Yangzhou, Xuzhou, as the more devepoled cities in differrent regions have a more rapidly growth rate. Fourth, there existed a reversed U shaped curve between carbon emission inten- sity and GDP per capita, with the inflexion point of the curve at roughly 25 000 yuan per capita, while in each city, the relationship is a wavy curve. Fifth, deeoupling index is influenced by the industrial strut ture, economic policy and the level of clean technologies.