山西东南部气候变暖与某些灾害天气的演变特征分析

The Characteristic of Climate Warming and Some Disaster Weather in Southeast Shanxi Province

为了深入研究山西东南部地区气候变暖背景下某些灾害天气的变化规律,应用1971—2010年山西东南部11个气象观测站年平均温度资料,对年际变化特征分析得出气候变暖的存在事实,年平均气温的上升速率为0.3℃/10年。利用年、季及年代平均气温与干旱事件、寒潮、高温日数的趋势演变对比分析,得出结论:气候变暖是灾害天气发生异变的主要原因。随着年代平均气温的升高,干旱事件次数增加;随年际温度趋势的上升,寒潮次数减少,其减少速率为4.8次/10年;秋季气温的升高使得寒潮开始期推后,秋季气温的上升速率为0.23℃/10年,寒潮的推迟速率为15天/10年;春季气温的升高使得寒潮结束期提前,春季气温的上升速率为0.3℃/10年,寒潮的提前速率为10天/10年;高温日数与夏季年代气温的变化趋势一致,从20世纪80年代起,随着年代气温的升高,高温日数明显增多。

In order to further study on some disaster weather variation under the background of climate warming of Shanxi southeastern regions,using the temperature data of 11 meteorological observation stations in southeast Shanxi during 1971-2010,the author analyzed the average annual temperature,obtained the fact of climate warming,the average annual temperature rise speed was 0.3℃/10 a.Then,the author compared year,season mean temperature with arid event,cold wave,high temperature days tendency evolution,drew the conclusion：the climate warming were the primary cause for the disaster weather mutation.Along with age average temperature＇s rise,the arid event times increased;along with the rise of annual temperature tendency,the cold wave times reduced,its speed reduced was 4.8 times/10 a,the autumn temperature rise caused the cold wave initial period postponed,the autumn temperature＇s rise speed was 0.23℃/10 a,the cold wave delay rate was 15 d/10 a;the spring temperature rise made the cold wave finishing period to be ahead of time,spring temperature rise speed was 0.3℃/10 a,cold wave advance speed was 10 d/10 a;The high temperature date number was consistent with the summer age temperature＇s change tendency,from the 80s,along with age temperature rise,the high temperature days increased obviously.