郑州市居民虚拟水消费灰色关联分析及趋势预测

Grey Incidence Analysis and Trend Forecasting of Virtual Water Consumption for People in Zhengzhou

水是日常生活消费过程中必不可少的资源,消费结构与水资源消耗量有着直接的关系。郑州市1999-2008年虚拟水消费量的计算结果和未来5年虚拟水消费量的预测结果均表明:郑州市居民人均虚拟水消费量有逐渐增加的趋势。灰色关联分析结果表明:虚拟水消费结构在未来年份发生变化,消费重点由肉类转移为蔬菜类及蛋类、奶类、糕点等其他类产品。鉴于肉类和其他类产品的单位重量的虚拟水含量较一般的植物性产品高,郑州市未来应积极调整消费结构,增加植物性产品的消费量,以减少虚拟水消费量,促进水资源可持续利用。

Water is essential to daily consumption and the consumption structure is directly related with water consumption.The calculation of virtual water consumption for People in Zhengzhou from 1999 to 2008,as well as the forecasting of the next five years,all indicated a growing trend.Grey incidence analysis showed that the consumption structure of virtual water will change in the future.That is to say that the highlight of consumption will shift from meat to vegetables and the other products such as eggs,milk,cakes.Since the virtual water content of per kilogram of meat or other products is higher than that of per vegetable products,the consumption structure in Zhengzhou should be adjusted in the future.The aim is to reduce virtual water consumption and to promote the sustainable utilization of water resources by increasing consumption of vegetal products.