庐山旅游区气候变化特征及其影响因素分析

Characteristics of Climate Change and Its Driving Forces in the Tourism Area of Lushan Mountain Since 1955

采用Mann-Kendall方法,对1955～2008年庐山旅游区气候要素进行变化趋势分析和突变检验,结果表明,近54 a来气温和降水都出现了不同程度的差异性升高和增加趋势。庐山旅游区年平均气温上升趋势较显著,20世纪90年代以来年平均气温明显偏高,并在1996年左右发生了突变。极端最高气温升高幅度微弱,但极端最低气温上升趋势显著,且升高幅度较大。年降水量呈微弱的增加趋势,20世纪70年代频繁波动突变,且20世纪70年代以来年降水量都较以前偏高,其中20世纪90年代最高。近年来,最大日暴雨量和年暴雨日数都呈增加趋势,20世纪90年代是最大日暴雨量和暴雨日数的最高时期。夏秋季节暴雨频繁,暴雨6月最多,大暴雨8月最多,且年降水量增加趋势的贡献可能是夏秋季节极端降水事件增加的结果。

Mann-Kendall trend test and abrupt change detection methods are utilized to analyze the climate change in the tourism area of Lushan Mountain. Results show that the temperature and the precipitation are undergoing an increasing trend in the tourism area of Lushan Mountain. The annual mean temperature is detected to have a significant increasing trend since 1955, and abrupt change occurred in 1996. The annual extreme maximum temperature increases slightly while the annual extreme minimum temperature has a relatively higher increasing trend with lager amplitude. The annual precipitation demonstrates a relatively slow increasing trend, and frequent abrupt changes occurred in the 1970s, the 1990s witnessed the highest precipitation since 1970s in which it has more precipitation than ever. The maximum daily storm rainfall and the annual total storm days also show an increasing trend, and the precipitation in 1990s proves to be the highest decade. Storm occurs frequently, most storm days and heavy storms occur in June and August respectively, and the storm rainfall in summer and autumn might be the main contribution for the annual precipitation increase. forces of the climate change in the tourism area of Lushan Mountain, it is a typical As for the possible driving regional response to the climate change which is demonstrated to be a response process of the influence of global warming and the effect of anthropological activities.