基于技术成熟困难度的航天型号研制风险管理方法

A R&D Risk Management Method of Weapon Based on Advancement Degree of Difficulty

通过分析航天型号存在的各种研制风险,指出技术风险是最根本性和最重要的研制风险,但目前的技术风险管理多数是基于定性评价的管理方法,以传统的专家经验为主。本文提出了一种以技术成熟困难度评估为基础的技术风险评估框架和方法,将分级量化和相对规范的技术成熟度、技术成熟困难度和技术关键度引入风险评估的过程,通过技术成熟困难度和技术风险评估结果,指导型号设计师系统开展技术攻关策划和指挥系统实施技术风险管理。该方法针对不同技术成熟度等级之间的跨越难度,将定性与定量的方法相结合,具有动态性好、适应性广的特征,可以贯穿航天型号整个研制周期实施风险管理,有着较强的针对性和实用性。

By analyzing a variety of R＆D risk of weapons, it indicates that technical risk is the fundamental and paramount development risk. Most of today＇ s technology risk management is based on the qualitative assessment of risk management according to the traditional expertise. An assessment framework of technology risk based on the advancement degree of difficulty assessment is presented. The technology maturity,the advancement degree of difficulty and the technology critical value are introduced to technology risk assessment process. Through the assessment results of advancement degree of difficulty and technology risk, the technical command system is guided to implement technology risk management and designer system is guided to carry out the R＆D of key technology. According to the gaps between different technology maturity levels, the method is developed by combining the qualitative and quantitative approaches, which is dynamic and adaptable. The method can be used throughout the risk management of entire development cycle of aerospace project and has a strong relevance and practicality.