农村消费需求对经济增长贡献的实证分析——以1985—2008年河南省数据为例

An Empirical Analysis of Contribution to Economic Growth in Rural Consumption——Based on Data in Henan from 1985—2008

文章利用扩展线性支出系统模型,以1985—2008年河南省数据为例,分析了农村居民边际消费倾向和农村居民家庭消费需求收入弹性,测算了农村消费需求对经济增长的贡献率与拉动率。研究结果表明:河南省农村消费对经济的贡献率很小,大部分是依靠城镇消费和政府投资来拉动经济增长;河南省农村市场不论是生活消费品还是生产资料的需求潜力巨大,开拓未来河南省农村消费市场大有可为。

This paper, based on the data in Henan from 1985 to 2008, through the method of ELES model, analyses the rural residents marginal propensity to consume and rural household consumption demand elasticity of income, and computes the rural consumption demand of contribution to economic growth and pull rate. The research result shows that the Henan rural consumption demand of contribution to economic growth is small, largely depend on the towns consumption and government investment to stimulate economic growth. The Henan rural market, whether the demand for consumer goods or the means of production potential, presents a great potential for the exploration of the future promising consumer market in rural areas in Henan province.