中国近海海平面变化半经验预测方法研究

Discussion on semi-empirical prediction method for sea level change of China

由于用数值模式预测未来海平面变化存在很大的不确定性,而统计预测方法又通常不考虑相关物理过程,为此Rahmstorf通过建立海平面变化与全球气温变化的相关模型,提出了一个可行的半经验方法预测全球海平面。本文将Rahmstorf模型应用于中国近海,初步建立了一个在气候变暖背景下中国近海海平面长期变化的预测方法,预测结果表明到21世纪末中国近海海平面将比20世纪末上升28～64 cm,略高于全球平均水平。

As using the numerical model to predict the future sea-level changes has a huge uncertainty,and the statistical forecasting methods usually do not take into account relevant physical processes,Rahmstorf developed a semi-empirical method of predicting global sea level,which established the relationship between global surface air temperature and mean sea level.This article applied Rahmstorf model to establish the sea level change prediction method of China under the climate warming.The predicted results show that the 21st century sea level of China will rise by 28~64 cm,slightly higher than the global average.