摘要
以1978-2007年间安徽省生产总值、出口总额和能源消费总量的数据为基础,运用协整分析和Granger因果检验对三者关系进行了实证研究.结果显示:3个变量间存在长期协整关系;安徽出口贸易与其能源消耗之间不存在双向因果关系,而安徽经济增长与其能源消耗之间则存在双向因果关系,安徽出口贸易与安徽经济增长之间呈单向因果关系.
Based on the data of 1978~2007,the methods of cointegration analysis and Granger causality test are used to empirically study the relationship of Anhui's economic growth,export value and energy consumption.The conclusion shows that the three variables have long-term cointegration relationship;export trade is not the double-direction causality of energy consumption,while economic growth is the double-direction causality of energy consumption,and export trade is the single-direction causality of economic growth.In view of the above conclusion,suggestions are put forward.
出处
《安徽工程大学学报》
CAS
2011年第3期68-72,共5页
Journal of Anhui Polytechnic University
关键词
出口贸易
能源消耗
经济增长
因果关系
export trade
energy consumption
economic growth
causality