中国猪瘟风险评估框架的构建

Establishment of risk assessment framework of CSF in China

为量化评估我国发生猪瘟的风险,本研究通过分析影响猪瘟发生的风险因素,确定7个风险因素12个子风险因素。遵循指标选择原则,将风险因素按照传染源、传播途径、易感动物3个风险来源归纳为9个风险评估指标,并采取层次分析法、模糊综合评价法和多指标综合评价法,探索构建由评估指标体系、指标权重、评价标准、综合评价函数组成的猪瘟风险评估框架。以西南某地区和华中某地区为例对该框架进行初步验证,风险评估结果为2008年西南某地区和华中某地区均为猪瘟发生高风险地区,风险概率分别为0.91996和0.69332。经与两地区2008年发生猪瘟疫情情况进行比较,表明该框架具有一定的可操作性,评估结果与疫情发生情况具有一定的相关性。

For quantitative risk assessment of classical swine fever （CSF） outbreak in China, it was confirmed that 7 primary and 12 secondary risk factors by qualitative analyzed the risk caused CSF outbreak. These were reduced to 9 risk evaluation index according to infection sources, transmission pattems and susceptible animals by followed the risk assessment index selection principle. The risk assessment framework of CSF was established which consists of risk assessment index system, index weight, evaluation standard and comprehensive evaluation function by taken analytic hierarchy process （AHP）, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation （FCE） and multiple objective comprehensive evaluation （MOCE）. Then, it is preliminary validated by studied the cases of one region in Southwest China and one region in Central China. It is concluded that the regions in Southwest China and Central China were the high risk area of CSF occur in 2008, the risk probability of those was 0.91996 and 0.69332 respectively. The result indicated that it is some operational and the assessment results are certainly related to the outbreak of CSF by compared with CSF outbreak in the 2 region.