中国旅游经济增长因素及其贡献度分析

An Empirical Study of the Factors Influencing the Tourism Economic Growth of China

文章以经济增长理论的进展为基础,使用中国大陆31个省(市、区)的历史面板数据,结合旅游业的经济特性,分析影响中国旅游经济增长的诸要素及其贡献度。结果表明,中国旅游经济的增长主要是依靠要素投入特别是资本投入而不是通过追求技术进步来获得的,属于典型的要素驱动型增长。价格水平、环境质量和技术进步对于旅游经济增长都具有显著的正向影响;在政府主导型发展模式作用下,各地的旅游发展绩效与其制度质量无关;可进入性与旅游发展的关系需要结合具体情境加以分析。此外,旅游发展可能会降低目的地人力资本以及教育投资需求,价格水平的持续上涨也会对制造业带来不利影响。因此,旅游发展是把双刃剑。如果处理不好旅游发展与其它产业、技术进步以及人力资本培育之间的关系,旅游业的长期繁荣同样有可能面临"资源诅咒",对地方经济的长期发展产生不利影响。

Based on the recent development of economic growth theories,this paper panoramically analyzes the factors influencing the tourism economic growth of China and their contribution respectively by using historical panel data of 31 provinces（Municipalities or Autonomous Regions） in China's Mainland.The findings are as follows： the Chinese tourism economic growth seems to be the typical factors-driven model which is mainly driven by inputs,especially capital investment.Price,environmental quality as well as technical progress have a positive relationship with tourism economic growth.The relationship between institution quality and tourism economic growth is not significant due to the government-oriented tourism development model.Accessibility is an unpredictable factor which depends on the specific situation of destinations.Long run tourism development would reduce the demand for human capital and education investment.Meanwhile,inflation would also bring negative impacts on manufacturing industry.Therefore,tourism boom is a double-edged sword.The long boom of tourism would face a＂resources curse＂ which may fail to deal with the balance among tourism,manufacturing industry as well as education.