小水电水工建筑物健康诊断灰色理论模型

Grey system theory model of hydraulic structure health diagnosis for small hydropower stations

针对小水电系统安全评价中环境复杂、统计资料匮乏、信息不完整、指标不确定等问题,引入灰色理论对小水电水工建筑物进行健康诊断.从结构可靠度的安全性、适用性、耐久性角度出发,分析了影响小水电水工建筑物健康的主要指标因素.引入指标重要性分值概念,结合熵权理论,对传统的AHP法进行了改进.综合运用改进AHP法和专家评判法,构建了基于灰色理论的小水电水工建筑物健康诊断指标体系及评价模型.实例表明,该方法计算所得结果较客观、稳定,可为小水电站安全运行、除险加固提供参考.

Aimed at the problems of complex environment,rare statistical data,incomplete information,and uncertain indexes in small hydropower safety evaluation,the grey system theory was used in health diagnosis of hydraulic structures at small hydropower stations.Various indexes and factors influencing the hydraulic structure health were analyzed in terms of safety,applicability,and durability.The index importance value and entropy weight theory were used to improve the conventional analytical hierarchy process（AHP） method.Using the improved AHP method and expert adjudicate method,a diagnosis index system and an evaluation model for hydraulic structures health of small hydropower stations were developed based on the grey system theory.The case study results show that the model is effective and reasonable,and can be used for the reinforcement and safety operation of small hydropower.