中国对外双边贸易均衡影响因素的实证分析——基于中国与114国的相关面板数据

On Balance of China′s Bilateral Foregn Trade: An Empirical Analysis based on Panel Data Relating to China and 114 Countries

对外双边贸易失衡已严重制约中国对外贸易的健康发展。本文在回顾与评析贸易均衡已有研究的基础上,选取中国与114国在1995～2008年间的双边贸易面板数据,应用修正后的Zakir和Ismail(2010)模型来实证分析中国对外双边贸易均衡影响因素。结果表明,伙伴国与中国的相对实际国内生产总值和贸易加权距离增加将恶化中国贸易收支状况;伙伴国与中国的相对实际人均收入和双边实际汇率增加会改善中方贸易收支状况。据此,本文提出中国平衡对外双边贸易收支的地区与国别政策。

Foreign bilateral trade imbalances have seriously restricted the healthy development of China′s foreign trade.By reviewing the existing researches,this article selects the panel data of bilateral trade between China and 114 countries from 1995 to 2008 and applies the revised Zakir and Ismail(2010) model to empirically analyze the influence factors of China′s bilateral trade balance.The results show that the increases in relative real GDP and trade weighted distance worsen China′s balance,and the increases in relative real per GNI and bilateral real exchange rate improve China′s balance.Thus,this article puts forward some regional and national policies.