流动性过剩测度的理论探讨和实证分析

Theoretical Discussion and Empirical Analysis on Measuring the Excess Liquidity

首先依据货币分解理论,论证和检验了货币流动性的基础地位。接着,将流动性过剩表示为货币总供给与货币总需求之间的差异,利用计量思想解决了货币需求函数中货币需求量数据缺乏的难题。最后进行了实证检验,结果表明,2008年第4季度我国存在着严重的流动性不足,流动性过剩系数达到-30%,说明美国金融危机对我国具有传导性影响。经过短暂的流动性不足,从2009年第1季度至今,我国又出现了持续的流动性过剩,这充分说明,控制和治理流动性过剩依然是我国宏观经济的重要议题。

According to the theory of monetary decomposition,this paper proves and tests that money liquidity is foundation status in different levels of liquidity which influences the bank liquidity and market liquidity.Excess liquidity can be expressed as the difference between the total supply and total demand of money.Using the econometric thoughts,the authors solve the problem that there is lack of dada of money demand in money demand function.The empirical results show that there is serious liquidity shortfall in 2008q4 in our country with liquidity coefficient of-30% showing the conductivity influence of the American financial crisis to China.After a brief period of liquidity shortfall,from 2009q1 to now,our country is having undergone continuous excess liquidity.This fully explains that control and management of excess liquidity is still the important issue of macroscopic economy.