基于低碳视角的天津市能源结构系统动力学分析

Analysis on System Dynamics of Energy Structure in Tianjin Based on Low-Carbon Economy Perspective

全球气候变化和温室气体的大量排放已成为国际社会广泛关注的问题,能源结构调整是应对这一问题行之有效的手段。通过对天津市能源结构进行研究,从低碳角度出发,以改善天津以煤为主的能源供给结构、提高能源利用效率、缓解能源供应压力、减少环境污染和生态破坏为目的,应用系统动力学对天津市能源结构的未来发展情况进行模拟,通过对非低碳模式、低碳模式和强化低碳模式3种模拟方案下能源消耗情况和温室气体排放的比较,找出适合天津市能源结构调整的最佳模式。

Climate change and greenhouse gas emissions have become widespread concerns of the international community. Energy structure adjustment is the effective measure to address this issue. Through studying the energy structure of Tianjin, this study aims to promote the coal - based energy supply structure of Tianjin, improve energy efficiency, ease pressure on energy sup- ply and reduce environmental pollution. From low- carbon perspective analysis, this paper adopts system dynamics approach to simulate the future development of Tianjin energy structure, and then compare the greenhouse gas emission and energy consumption through non - carbon model, low - carbon model and strengthen low - carbon models to find the best model for energy struc- tural adjustment of Tianjin.