我国移动通信产业发展路径区域差异及扩散机制研究

Regional Difference and Diffusion Mechanism of Chinese Mobile Telecommunications: Study Based on Saturated Rate Meserable Model

移动通信作为信息流动的便捷有效媒介和载体,在信息化和经济发展过程中扮演越来越重要的基础支撑作用,其发展的区域均衡性对区域协调发展具有重要意义。然而,我国移动通信产业发展出现了明显的区域差距。本文对Mansfield模型进行了改进,克服了Harald&Frank(2000)提出的发展过程中饱和参数不可估难题,成功评估了我国不同地区移动通信发展的路径差异,并考察了相应的扩散影响机制。研究结果表明,投资在该产业起步阶段具有主要作用,而通信资费、收入、城市化水平则是决定发展速度和最终发展水平的主要因素,要缓解数字鸿沟,实现产业区域协调发展,须提升中西部对移动通信的有效需求。

As an effective and convenient medium for information communication, mobile communication plays more and more important role in the economic system, and the equilibrium of which has a considerable impact on harnmnious development between districts. However, Mobile communication in China shows serious imbalances in different regions. This paper improves Mansfield＇s model and overcomes the difficulty of estimating the terminal saturated rate before the end of diffusion, and achieves to describe as well as demonstrate the different development paths and related mechanisms of mobile telecommunications in China＇s different districts. The study indicates that investment plays a vital role in the starting period, while income, price and citization level determine the final development level. In order to alleviate the digital gap and achieve harmonious development, it is vital to increase the effective demand for mobile communication.