劳动生产率对我国贸易收支的传导效应研究

The Study of Transmission Mechanisms from Labor Productivities to the Trade Balance in China

本文探讨劳动生产率因素对我国贸易收支的传导效应。首先从理论层面分析了传导效应,然后构建国内外可贸易部门和不可贸易部门劳动生产率的计量模型,首次构造各省对应的人民币对美元实际汇率、人民币实际有效汇率指数,并运用了面板协整、误差修正和门槛模型等实证方法。实证结果表明:国内可贸易部门和不可贸易部门劳动生产率显著影响贸易收支;我国总体上符合实际汇率效应,存在劳动力效应,而资本流动效应不明显;实际汇率通过人民币对美元实际汇率而非实际有效汇率影响贸易收支。此外还发现,存在经济增长门槛效应,更高的GDP阶段劳动生产率的影响更显著;劳动生产率的影响存在显著的地区差异,东部地区总体上实际汇率效应显著,中部和西部地区总体上劳动力效应显著。最后,本文对平衡我国贸易收支提出了政策建议。

This paper talks about transmission mechanisms from labor productivities to the trade balance in China. We first use every province＇ s RMB real exchange rate against U.S. dollar and real effective exchange rate index, and construct model based on productivities of trade sectors and non-trade sectors at home and abroad. We use empirical methods like panel co-integration, error correction and threshold model. Firstly, This paper finds productivities of trade sectors and non- trade sectors influence trade balance obviously. Secondly, there is a significant transmission mechanism of real exchange rate, and there is a transmission mechanism of labor but no capital flow mechanism in China. Real exchange rate influences trade balance through RMB real exchange rate against U. S. dollar but not through RMB real effective exchange rate. Thirdly, there exists threshold effect of economic growth, showing that the impact of labor productivity is more obvious at higher GDP. What more, the impact is different in different districts. There is real exchange rate mechanism in eastern region and there is labor mechanism in central and western regions obviously. At last, This paper shows some advice to improve our trade balance.