开放条件下产出缺口型菲利普斯曲线的再验证——基于中国省际季度动态面板数据

The Re-estimation of Output Gap-based Phillips Curve under Open Economy Condition:Based on the Provincial Quarterly Dynamic Panel Data

本文采用系统广义矩估计方法基于2001～2009年中国省际季度面板数据对开放条件下产出缺口型菲利普斯曲线进行再验证,通过三种通胀率指标以及四种滤波测算的产出缺口的稳健性检验,我们发现开放条件下混合型菲利普斯曲线能够较好地解释中国的价格波动。进一步子样本分析表明:适应性预期和理性预期始终对通胀率有显著的影响;从地域上看,供给冲击对沿海地区的作用明显高于内陆,而产出缺口对内陆的影响则更重要;从时间上看,产出缺口和供给冲击对通胀率的影响都在不断加强。我们的研究证明管理好通胀预期对当前反通胀政策具有重要意义,以及强调在利用传统需求管理的手段实现国内宏观经济均衡的同时,应密切关注外部供给冲击因素对我国宏观经济稳定的影响。

The paper re-estimates the output-gap-based Phillips Curve under open economy condition by system GMM estimation method with the quarterly provincial panel data of China during 2001 and 2009. Through the robustness test of three kinds of inflation index and four kinds of filter estimation of output gap, it is found that hybrid Phillips Curve under open economic condition can better explain the price fluctuations in China. Sub- sample analysis shows that adaptive and rational expectations have a significant impact on the inflation in China. From the geographical perspective, the supply shock to inflation is significantly higher in the coast area than in- land area, while the output gap is more important in the inland area. From the time perspective, the effects of both output gap and supply shocks on the inflation are increasing. The research indicates that managing inflation expectations is essential for the current anti-inflation policy. While emphasizing on the use of traditional means of demand management to achieve domestic macroeconomic equilibrium, the government should also pay a close attention to the external supply shocks on China＇s macro-economic stability.