中国计划生育政策对居民储蓄率的影响——基于省级面板数据的研究

The Impacts of China's Family Planning Policy on the Household Savings Rate:Analysis Based on China's Provincial Panel Data

通过中国省级面板数据分析可知,计划生育政策的确对居民储蓄率产生重要影响,但是影响并不一致,1991～1997年间,由于社会抚养费的征收,计划生育政策降低了储蓄率。1998～2007年间,独女可生二孩政策与二孩政策混合的地区尽管相对于二孩及以上的政策地区,存在储蓄与孩子的互替,储蓄率较高,其主要原因是性别比失调导致的婚姻市场挤压,储蓄的婚姻作用远远超过了教育;在高储蓄率的背后是农村人均纯收入增长率对储蓄率影响的下降,预计中国未来的居民储蓄率会有所降低。适度放宽计划生育政策有利于经济增长和社会常态发展。

Based on the China＇s provincial panel data, the paper suggests that family planning policy had an important effect on the Chinese Household Savings Rate （ HSR）, but the impact is different. From 1991 to 1997, due to the collection of social compensation fee, family planning policy reduced HSR. From 1998 to 2007, rela- tive to more-than-two-children policy area, the HSR of ordy-one-daughter-ean-have-another-child policy and two-child policy mixed areas is higher, but the main reason is family planning policy, with the unbalanced sex ratio, which caused marriage squeeze. Savings for marriage is more important than education. However, we can＇t ignore that the impact of per capita net income growth rate to HSR in rural areas has declined, and the HSR is expected to be reduced in the future. Moderately eased the family planning policy will be favorable for the economic growth and social development.