中国东部沿海省市风暴潮经济损失风险区划

Risk zoning of economic loss caused by storm surge in coastal provinces and cities of china

风暴潮是我国沿海省市面临的重大自然灾害之一,给这些地区造成了难以估量的损失。选取1989-2008年沿海11省、市、自治区风暴潮的历史数据作为研究样本,运用因子得分基础上的聚类分析和熵值评价等方法,对这些地区风暴潮灾害经济损失的风险进行了评估,最终按风暴潮灾害的经济损失程度将沿海省市划分为3个区域:即上海为第1区,表示风暴潮经济损失风险最小;海南、福建、浙江、广东4省为第3区,风险最大;其他省、市、自治区为第2区,表示经济损失风险居中。3个区域的灾害区划,为我们从更深层次上认识风暴潮的发生及是造成的损失情况提供了新的视角。

Storm surges is one of the major natural disasters in coastal area of China, which has caused incalculable loss. In this paper, we selected 11 coastal provinces （ municipalities, autonomous regions, ） ＇ storm surge data from the year 1989 to 2008 as a research sample, while the cluster analysis based on factor scores and evaluation of en- tropy methods were used to evaluate the disaster risk of storm surge in these areas. According to extent of loss, these areas can be divided into three kinds： Shanghai has the smallest risk of storm surge disaster as the First District; the provinces of Hainan, Fujian, Zhejiang and Guangdong have the greatest risk as the Second District; the other provinces（ municipality, autonomous region） have the medial risk as the Third District. This result gives us a new perspective to understand the occurrence of storm surge and the loss caused by it.