晋城市粮食产量预测方法比较研究

A Comparison on the Grain Yield Prediction Methods for Jincheng City

提高粮食产量预测精度是科学编制土地利用总体规划的重要课题。该文首先运用灰色关联分析方法对影响粮食产量的因素做出关联因子排序,分析表明粮食单产对粮食总产量的影响最大,粮食作物播种面积次之。其次在灰色关联分析的基础上选取主要影响因子,通过比较线性回归模型、灰色GM(1,1)模型和灰色多元线性回归组合模型的预测结果,得到灰色多元线性回归组合模型预测结果最佳。

Improving the forecast accuracy of grain yield is the important subject of compiling general land use planning. In this paper,grey correlativity analysis is used to analyze key factors of grain production. The result shows that the production of per land area has the greatest influence on grain, followed by cultivated area. Then based on the grey correlativity analysis, the author selects the main factors. The result shows that grey-multiple linear regression model has the highest prediction accuracy by comparing the linear regression model, grey GM（l, 1） model and grey-multiple linear regression model.