就近入学空间模型分析——以河南省巩义市初级中学为例

Spatial Modeling and Analysis of the Nearby School Enrollment: A Case Study of the Junior Middle Schools in Gongyi City,Henan Province

从地理空间的角度理解我国义务教育就近入学政策与择校现象,引入空间模型模拟学校与居民点之间的供需关系,并尝试解释与择校现象密切相关的"热校"和"冷校"问题。使用最近距离模型、引力模型和Huff模型,以河南省巩义市50所初级中学和1 276个居民点为例,在ArcGIS软件中进行模型分析。在模型有效性检验的基础上,引入学校热度指标鉴别"热校"和"冷校",并统计各类学校的规模、生均资源分配和平均入学距离等指标。研究表明:Huff模型能较好地模拟义务教育供需现状;"热校"、"冷校"与其他学校的规模、生均资源和入学距离存在显著差异。该研究对于就近入学政策实施和学校布局调整具有参考价值。

Understanding the nearby school enrollment and school choice phenomena from the geospatial perspective, the spatial demand-supply relationships in compulsory education were modeled, and the issues related to school popularity were discussed. The service flows between 50 junior middle schools and 1 276 residence points in Gongyi City, Henan Province were estimated using spatial models such as nearest school model ,gravity model and Huff model. The models were tested by linear regression of actual and estimated student enrollments of all schools. Consequently, the most popular schools and the most unpopular schools are dentified according to the indexes of school popularity, and the overall profiles of popular, unpopular and other schools were outlined statistically. The case study shows that：l） the Huff model is capable of estimating the service flows between residential points and schools;2） the popular schools are evidently characterized by large school size, large class unit, low educational resources per student and long distance from residence, and vice versa. The research findings have implications for nearby enrollment and school planning.