摘要
[Objective] The reason of the high level of agricultural fertilization was studied from economics angle.[Method] Farmers fertilization input model was developed.The time series data from 1990 to 2004 in Jiangsu Province was applied for analysis.[Result] The fertilizer price,labor price and agricultural products price can explain 93% of the changes of farmers＇ fertilization level.The influence of farmers＇ education level was insignificant.The dysfunction of the agricultural technology promotion system had certain influence on farmers＇ fertilizing behavior.[Conclusion] The high level of fertilization was partially because of shortage of scientific fertilizing technology and more importantly was the substitution effect caused by the rising in wages of labor in relative to price of chemical fertilizations and the derivation effect caused by the increase in the prices of agricultural products.
[目的]从经济学角度解释当前农业施肥水平过高的原因。[方法]建立农民化肥投入模型,并应用江苏省1990～2004年的序列数据进行实证分析。[结果]20世纪90年代以来化肥投入水平的增加主要原因在于劳动力价格的上涨;农技推广体系的完善程度对农民施肥行为有一定的影响,但农技推广体系的衰落并不是农民施肥量大幅增加的主要原因。[结论]农业施肥水平过高的部分原因在于缺乏科学施肥的技术,但更重要的因素是劳动工资的提高所造成的化肥对劳动投入的替代效应以及农产品价格持续上涨所产生的引致效应。
