气候变化对黄淮海地区冬小麦光温生产潜力的影响

Impact of Climate Change on the Productive Potential of Winter Wheat in Huang-Huai-Hai Region

[目的]研究气候变化对黄淮海地区冬小麦光温生产潜力的影响,为应对气候变化提供理论依据。[方法]基于黄淮海地区51个气象站点的1971～2006年的逐日气象数据,以WOFOST模拟冬小麦的光温生产潜力,借用ArcGIS软件,研究光温生产潜力的时空变化。[结果]研究时段内,黄淮海冬小麦光温生产潜力整体呈增加趋势,然而不同区域的趋势不一致。不考虑20世纪80年代冷湿气候的影响,河北西北部和南部、河南东南部及环渤海湾地带的光温生产潜力呈上升趋势;冀东、京津和鲁中地区的光温生产潜力呈下降趋势;河南西部和北部的光温生产潜力20世纪80、90年代连续下降,进入21世纪初后大幅上升。[结论]气候变化整体上有利于光温生产潜力的提高。

[Objective] The reference for the response of the climatic variation in winter wheat production was provided through the analysis of the climatic variation affecting the potential of winter wheat yield in Huang-Huai-Hai region.[Method] The WOFOST model was used to simulate the potential of winter wheat yield based on the daily meteorological data from 51 Weather Stations in Huang-Huai-Hai region from 1971 to 2006 and then the temporal and spatial variation of its potential was analyzed with ArcGIS software.[Result] The results showed that：in the period,the potential of winter wheat yield gradually increased on the whole,but the trend was inconsistent among different areas.Irrespective of the influence of cold wet weather in 1980s,the potential of winter wheat yield in northwestern and southern Hebei,eastern and northern Henan increased gradually,while in the eastern Hebei,Shandong and Beijing-Tianjin region it decreased gradually;.The potential of the light and temperature to winter wheat yield in northern and western Henan declined continuously after 1980s,but had significantly increased since 2010s.[Conclusion] The climatic variation was beneficial to the improvement of wheat yield potential.