近55年绥中气候变化特征分析

Analysis on the Climate Change Characteristics in Suizhong in Recent 55 Years

[目的]研究近55年绥中的气候变化特征。[方法]利用1956～2010年绥中县温度、日照、降水等气象观测资料,采用线性回归、5日滑动平均和离差系数等方法,分析温度、日照、降水等气象要素的变化趋势以及稳定通过某界限值的时间和稳定度,从而掌握近55年来绥中县气候变化特征。[结果]近55年绥中温度变化呈上升趋势,近25年(1986～2010年)升温明显,冬季气温和平均最低气温增温幅度较大且变化幅度大,稳定性差;无霜期、≥10℃积温等变化趋势与气温变化趋势基本一致;日照时数总体呈下降趋势,但不明显,冬半年呈上升趋势,夏半年呈下降趋势,夏季下降趋势明显;降水量总体呈下降趋势,春、冬季降水呈上升趋势,夏、秋季呈下降趋势;冬季降水变化幅度较大,稳定性差,夏季降水变化幅度较小,稳定性较好。[结论]该研究为管理部门了解和掌握地方性气候变化特征及防灾减灾提供依据。

[Objective] The research aimed to study the climate variation characteristics in Suizhong in recent 55 years.[Method] Based on the meteorological observation data（temperature,sunshine,precipitation,etc.） in Suizhong County during 1956-2010,the variation trend,the time and stable degree which stably passed the threshold of meteorological factor were analyzed by using the linear regression,five-day sliding average and deviation coefficient.The climate change characteristics in Suizhong County in recent 55 years were grasped.[Result] In recent 55 years,the temperature in Suizhong presented the rising trend.In recent 25 years（1986-2010）,the temperature rising was obvious.In winter,the rising ranges of temperature and average minimum temperature were big.Moreover,the variation range was big,and the stability was bad.The variation trends of frost-free period and ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature were basically consistent with that of temperature.The sunshine hours overall presented the declining trend,which wasn’t obvious.It presented the rising trend in winter half year and the declining trend in summer half year.The declining trend in summer was obvious.The rainfall overall presented the declining trend.Spring and winter precipitation presented the rising trend.The precipitation in summer and autumn presented the declining trend.The variation range of precipitation in winter was big,and the stability was bad.The variation range of precipitation in summer was small,and the stability was good.[Conclusion] The research provided the basis for management department understanding and grasping the local climate variation characteristics,disaster prevention and reduction.