华东地区气温变化对居住建筑能源消耗的影响研究

Impact of Temperature Change on Energy Consumption of Residential Building in East China

基于1961-2007年华东478个测站和2010-2039年RegCM3模式模拟的日平均气温资料,分析了华东采暖度日和制冷度日时空变化特征及其与气温变化的关系。结果表明,1961-2007年期间,华东采暖度日呈先增加后减少的变化趋势,制冷度日则呈先减少后增加的变化趋势。在2010-2039年期间,华东采暖度日将继续减少,制冷度日将继续增加。空间上,整个华东采暖度日在过去47年间和未来30年间基本都减少,并且北部减少多于南部。制冷度日在过去47年间以长江三角洲、浙江东部和福建增加最为明显,在未来30年间则以华东中西部增加较多。华东采暖和制冷度日的变化与气温变化密切相关。在过去47年间,由于气温升高华东采暖度日减少了7%,制冷度日增加了17%。未来30年间,华东气温将继续显著升高,采暖度日将减少8%,制冷度日将增加30%。

Based on the mean daily temperature data from 478 meteorological stations during 1961-2007 and those from RegCM3 model during 2010-2039,the spatial and temporal variations of heating and cooling degree-days and their relationships with the temperature variation in East China were analyzed.The results indicated that from 1961 to 2007,heating degree-days firstly increased and then decreased,but cooling degree-days firstly decreased and then increased in East China.The heating degree-days will decrease and the cooling degree-days will increase continuously in East China during 2010-2039.Spatially,the heating degree-days basically decrease in the whole East China in the past 47 years and in the future 30 years,with more decrease in the northern parts and less decrease in the southern parts of East China.The cooling degree-days increased more in the Yangtze Delta regions,the eastern parts of Zhejiang and Fujian in the past 47 years,but in the future 30 years,they will increase more in the central and western parts of East China,and less in the northern parts and eastern coastal areas of East China.There are high correlations between the variations of heating and cooling degree-days and those of temperature.In the past 47 years,the heating degree-days decreased by 7.1%,and the cooling degree-days increased by 16.7% in East China due to the rise of temperature.In the future 30 years,temperature will rise significantly,and the heating degree-days will decrease by 8.2%,and the cooling degree-days will increase by 29.6% compared with those during the period from 2010 to 2019.