中国的通货膨胀是输入性的吗?——物价波动国际传导路径的实证研究

Is China s Inflation Imported?——An Empirical Analysis on the International Transmission Path of Price Fluctuations

通货膨胀是当前中国经济的突出现象,对通货膨胀是否由国际输入存在争议。通过对2005年7月至2011年3月间的宏观经济数据分析表明,中国的物价总体上受到美国、欧盟的影响,并存在三条传导路径:价格传导、货币供给传导、总供求传导。因此遏制通胀不能仅靠国内的紧缩性货币政策,还要注意防范国际通货膨胀的输入性影响。政策建议包括调整优化产业结构,调节总供求,以及控制贸易规模和结构。

Inflation is the focusing phenomenon of Chinese economy, and there is a dispute whether the inflation is international imported or not. An empirical research is made based on the macroeconomic data from July in 2005 to March in 2011. It proves that Chinese general price is overall influenced by the United States and the European Union, and there are three transmission paths, price transmission, money supply transmission, the total supply and demand transmission. Therefore, to curb inflation is not only depending on domestic tightening monetary policy, but also on the prevention of the imported impact of international inflation. The paper proposes some policy recommendations, including optimizing and adjusting the industrial structure, adjusting the overall supply and demand, and controlling the scale and structure of trade.